The Big Questions - Is the NHS cutting lives
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This is The Big Questions -
The Big Questions
From Michaelston Community College in Cardiff, Nicky Campbell asks:
Is the NHS cutting lives short?
Baroness Finlay, a palliative care specialist; Dr Richard Hain, consultant in paediatric palliative medicine; gastroenterologist Dr Philip Howard; oncologist Dr Mark Glaser; Jackie Leotardi.
Transcription follows:
The Big Questions
From Michaelston Community College in Cardiff, Nicky Campbell asks:
Is the NHS cutting lives short?
Baroness Finlay, a palliative care specialist; Dr Richard Hain, consultant in paediatric palliative medicine; gastroenterologist Dr Philip Howard; oncologist Dr Mark Glaser; Jackie Leotardi.
Transcription follows:
Nicky
Campbell –
Most
of us prefer not to think too much about dying; it’s not really something we
can plan for but we all hope for a good death, pain-free, surrounded by our
loved ones, at home and in peace. But more than half of us will die on a busy
hospital ward and that’s why the Liverpool
Care Pathway was developed to try and make each of those deaths as pain-free
and peaceful as possible.
Some
families and doctors now fear that putting a patient on the Liverpool
care Pathway has itself become a death sentence ruling out the chance of
recovery. Is the NHS cutting lives short?
Em,
Dr. Philip Howard. Em, there’s been quite a media furore about this, something
of a media hysteria about it. The Daily Mail has been talking about it a lot.
Em, it’s not about not prolonging a life; it’s about not prolonging a life
unnecessarily, isn’t it? I mean, do you approve in principle of the Liverpool Care Pathway?
Dr.
Philip Howard –
I
think one of the problems with the Liverpool Care Pathway is it’s predicated on
a false premise, namely that you can accurately diagnose death; you can make an
accurate prognosis as to when that person is going to die, within the next few
hours or days. And there’s no scientific evidence that we can do that. And I
know of no calibration tools that we can use to say just how accurately we can
make that prognosis. That’s the danger. Now, if you then sedate the patient,
stop observations, stop interventions, and stop food and fluids, the patient
must die. Whether or not they would have died anyway, they must die if you
adopt that regime in full.
Nicky
Campbell –
Baroness
Finlay, can we have full confidence that, em, given the perceived crisis in
care - it’s been a very difficult week for the NHS – that this is being
ethically and appropriately applied?
Baroness
Finlay –
Can
I pick up the point, first of all, about prognosis…
Nicky
Campbell –
Please
do.
Baroness
Finlay -
The
Royal College of GPs in evidence to the select
committee I was on said, and I quote, it’s possible to make reasonably accurate
prognoses of death within minutes, hours, or a few days. When this stretches to
months, then the scope for error can extend into years. The thing is that there
is no absolute way of predicting what’s going to happen anywhere. It’s on
probabilities. Now, when somebody looks as if they’re dying and you have done
all you can to exclude all reversible causes, then, whatever you do, you must
go back and review and review and review. Good medicine is based on evidence,
on going back and analysing what you see before you.
Nicky Campbell –
And
what about a junior doctor, weekend staffing, a busy ward, you know; if it’s
down to good people who are not under pressure, who are not stressed, fine, but
is that always the case?
Baroness Finlay -
I certainly
think that the evidence that’s been coming forward – let’s look at evidence –
is that there seems to have been a problem in some cases and there is now an
inquiry set up under Baroness Neuberger.
I think that she needs to be able to access all the evidence, she needs
to be able to look at all the cases and she needs to be able to conduct her
inquiry independently, impartially, and look at where the problems lie, where
there are problems and, much more importantly, two, is what the solutions to
those problems are.
Nicky Campbell –
This… You
see, the people here and at home… If there’s a problem with the application,
that’s… Jackie…
Jackie
Leotardi -
We, we would
argue that, of course, there’s a case for high quality palliative care in
hospitals and in the home but, when that’s rolled out indiscriminately in the
NHS, it becomes very, very dangerous. My father was admitted to hospital on a
Friday evening, parked on a ward all weekend. We begged them to do a CT scan.
They kept saying, oh, we’ll have to see, we’ll have to see, we’ll have to see.
We got the consultant brought down to his bed; she still refused to do a CT
scan. On the Tuesday morning, they called us in. Oh, it’s too late now, he’s
too poorly. We were given a definitive diagnosis of perforation. We said, how
can you say that based on inconclusive x-rays? Oh, we’re sure it’s a
perforation. He was put on the Liverpool Care
Pathway and died. At the post mortem , it was found that he actually had a
pulmonary embolism.
Nicky Campbell –
It was a
misdiagnosis.
Jackie Leotardi -
Yes. It was a
total misdiagnosis. The reason we’re here is because elderly care in the NHS is
appalling.
Applause.
Baroness Finlay -
May I say
firstly, I’m not here to defend the whole NHS; I don’t know the ins and outs of
the tragedy of your father’s case.
Jackie Leotardi -
Exactly.
Baroness Finlay -
And I’m not; I can’t comment on that, but there certainly would appear to have been a
misdiagnosis. The difficulty in this discussion is, did the Liverpool
Care Pathway itself prevent people reviewing that diagnosis, or was the failure
at a different point earlier, and a failure of care?
Daughter of Jackie Leotardi -
The problem
is it wasn't just a misdiagnosis; the fact is they didn't do any investigation
into what he had. So, unfortunately, with a system like this, with the best
intentions in the world, people will fall through the cracks like our granddad,
and even if one person falls through the cracks, for me, that is wrong.
Applause.
Baroness Finlay -
I would certainly, I would
certainly not condone anyone falling through the cracks. The whole… of the
Nicky Campbell –
So this goes back to my first
question, doesn’t it? Given, you know, given the current problems, the current
stresses, the future pressures, reorganisation, do we have… Do you have the
utmost, as much as you can, confidence that this is being used appropriately
and ethically and responsibly applied?
Baroness Finlay -
Of course I couldn’t say that
I have a 100% confidence. We have an inquiry. I have been arguing for an
inquiry. I’ve supported the setting up of an inquiry. And we need to have it.
It needs to go and look in detail. Is the problem with the documentation
itself; is the problem with the way it’s being rolled out; is the problem with
what’s been happening actually at the bedside?
Jackie Leotardi -
Financial incentives.
Hospitals have been paid. We saw last week with the Francis inquiry about the
problem; about a target-driven NHS. Financial incentives have been paid to
hospitals, certain hospitals that are now being investigated for their
mortality rates…
Nicky Campbell –
30 million…
Jackie Leotardi -
Yes. One hospital was paid
£308,000 for reaching targets for putting people on what is basically a euthanasia
programme. Baroness, it is euthanasia.
Baroness Finlay -
It… No, euthanasia is about intent.
The Liverpool Care Pathway doesn’t intend to
kill people. It intends to improve the care when people are inevitably dying.
That’s quite different.
Daughter of Jackie Leotardi -
But it doesn’t work in practice…
Nicky
Campbell
intervenes and indicates –
Richard.
Richard.
Dr. Richard Hain –
In… In your interview with The
Gazette, you finish your interview accepting…
Nicky Campbell –
What Gazette is that…?
Dr. Richard Hain –
I can’t remember the name of
it. Your local Gazette.
Nicky Campbell –
Okay…
Dr. Richard Hain –
You made the point that it’s
not that the Liverpool Care Pathway is bad in
itself, it’s that it can be badly used. I’m paraphrasing, but that was…
Jackie Leotardi -
That’s right. It’s abused in
the NHS. (pauses)
Dr. Richard Hain –
And I think that’s the
distinction we …
.
Nicky
Campbell
intervenes -
So… Richard. So, the principle
of it is…
Dr. Richard Hain –
The principle of is that there
is a point in the life of a patient when we know when… when they are going to
die. We may not know it with absolute certainty. We’ve already talked about how
human beings find certainty desirable but we can’t always have it. If we wait
until we are certain, we miss the chance to care for them over that time.
Nicky Campbell –
So, it’s about not prolonging
a life unnecessarily.
Dr. Richard Hain –
Not prolonging or hastening
it.
Nicky
Campbell intervenes
and indicates –
Dr.
Haboubi.
Dr.Nadim Haboubi -
Em, em, em. I’m a physician and I look after acutely ill people. And we do, occasionally, put patient – and this is not frequent, you must understand that – on the Care Pathway. We agonise on these decision. We consult with nurses junior, senior doctors...
Nicky Campbell –
Family.
Dr.Nadim Haboubi -
Family,
of course. You can’t put a patient on a care pathway unless you consult the
family
(Intervening voices) -
And
yet very often does
Jackie Leotardi -
Very
often, there is no consent given
Nicky Campbell –
Were
you consulted?
We
were told that it was inoperable and that was what they were going to do. Beforehand,
we were fighting for investigations...
Nicky Campbell – (Talks
over)
So
you trusted… You trusted
Jackie Leotardi -
To
be taken.
Nicky Campbell –
You trusted their analysis, their diagnosis.
Jackie Leotardi -
Well,
we didn’t know, but what, what could we do, dial 999 and call the police? But I
know a lot of people who weren’t consulted. Their consent wasn’t sought from
the relatives; consent wasn’t sought from the patients.
Nicky Campbell –
Julia.
Julia
Manning -
That
is absolutely wrong. I was not behind the development of the Liverpool Care
Pathway which was developed at Liverpool with
Marie Curie cancer. It was very much about having the conversation around dying
well, and just as an expectant mother has a birth plan, we should all expect to
have a death plan, how we want to die, where we want to die, what kind of
interventions, and to not have that conversation was absolutely wrong and, you
know, you were betrayed in that I just want to come to come to another point
about the financial incentives. I think it’s totally wrong that hospitals are
paid to put people on this pathway. The money should go…
Applause.
Julia Manning -
The
money should go into training palliative care professionals and it should also,
as we’ve heard with the Francis report and one of the first suggestions is that
we need many more professionals who are trained in care for older people.
Nicky Campbell –
Is
this another example of the target driven culture, Baroness Finlay?
Nicky Campbell, i ndicates Dr. Richard Hain –
I see you’re nodding…
Baroness Finlay -
I…
I think there’s areal danger in trying to put simplistic targets around
healthcare which is incredibly complex
Nicky
And
nuanced…
Baroness Finlay -
The
absolute critical thing is that, whenever you've got a patient in front of you,
you must go back and review. You must rethink what you write. Is there
something else going on? Is there something actually reversible?
Nicky Campbell –
Yes.
So, that’s it. Richard, how often - and I know this is an interest area of
yours – how often, once somebody is on the Liverpool Care pathway, has somebody
been taken off it because signs of recovery have been…
Dr. Richard Hain –
I
need to be clear, I do paediatric palliative care and we don’t use the Liverpool Care Pathway in children. But the principal
that you’re asking, how often do we go back and review? We review all the time.
Eh. Every minute of every day, we… We would see a patient every day and I think
this issue of… em, it’s not so much a question of consent to go on the Pathway,
it’s the fact that the conversation needs to take place. It was designed to
facilitate that kind of communication, not to replace it. And I think it goes
back to an earlier comment, because it’s about individuality of the patient
we’re dealing with rather than the NHS trying to shape itself through defining
targets.
Baroness Finlay -
Can..
Can I just say, when you go back and review, about 3% of times, you find that,
actually, you were wrong. The person isn’t dying. They’re actually… They’ve
improved because you’ve stopped whatever treatments you were doing that were
making them worse than they felt… because that’s the nature of medicine.
(A
converse of voices)
Nicky Campbell –
Is
it the case… Is it under constant review when somebody’s on the Pathway?
Dr. Philip Howard –
One
of the problems about the Liverpool Care Pathway is that a decision is made and
then, very often, observations are stopped, nursing observations are stopped,
simple blood tests are stopped and further interventions are usually stopped –
with the exception of oxygen, interestingly enough; that’s continued in 45% of
cases. But most other interventions are stopped and very rarely started. When…
How can the patient be properly reviewed if you don’t have basic nurse
observations, basic blood tests and so on? After three days, em… three quarters
of the patients have died, but of those that are still alive, according to the
audit that was done of 7,000 patients two years ago, only 20% were reassessed.
Pause.
Nicky Campbell –
A
lady…
Nicky Campbell (indicates) -
You put your hand up a few minutes ago. I don’t know if your
point is still relevant but please make it. Go on.
Lady -
What’s
particularly worrying is that the vulnerable are the ones who are in most
danger. How about the people who don’t have families
Voices in agreement.
Applause.
Lady -
Who
may not be in the right mental capacity to understand what is happening around
them. Yet again, we are seeing in this society that the most vulnerable are
being put at risk, you know, from winter fuel payments wanting to be kept down,
to bedroom tax… Yet again, we are targeting the vulnerable and I think that
this Liverpool Care Pathway shouldn't be
allowed if you can’t 100% guarantee that there aren't risks like this
happening.
Nicky Campbell –
Jackie
Jackie Leotardi -
The
people I know… The people I know who have come off the Pathway have had
families who have been strong enough and confident enough to defy the doctors
and nurses. An old gentleman we know, after three days, he said, that’s it, I'm feeding my dad; I'm giving him some porage, I'm giving him a drink; that old
man, at 91 years of age, went home from hospital on Friday. But if his son hadn't had the guts to stand up to the doctors and nurses, he would be dead by
now.
Nicky Campbell –
So,
Richard, is…
Jackie Leotardi -
And
that’s what’s happening today in the NHS.
Nicky Campbell –
Is
there a danger, then, that it becomes a matter of resources?
Dr. Richard Hain –
There is a danger.
But that’s a misapplication of a good Pathway, rather than because the pathway
itself is wrong.
Nicky Campbell –
Extol
the virtues of the Pathway if there’s anyone listening who’s thinking, 'oh my
goodness'.
Dr. Richard Hain –
Because
I think it’s more difficult for doctors to do nothing than it is for them to do
something and there are times when to do nothing interventionist is the right
thing to do for people. And they need some help in doing that nothing and doing
it well. And the Liverpool Care Pathway
provides the support for them to make those good decisions. Em. That doesn’t
mean that it’s always implemented properly and I think what we’ve heard are a
number of examples where it has been implemented poorly.
Jackie Leotardi -
The
paperwork is sloppy. It just has to be signed by one doctor and a nurse. My
father’s paperwork was sloppy. The space for diagnosis is tiny.
Nicky Campbell (indicates) -
The lady there. Good Morning
Lady -
Can
I just speak up for doctors and nurses because any doctor and nurse I’ve ever
met in the NHS;
Applause.
Lady -
they’re
not angels of death that I feel people are painting them out to be here. They
care very much and they do have the patient’s best interests at heart, from my
experience is.
Applause.
Nicky Campbell (indicates) -
Christina
Biggs -
I . I think with death, we… It’s just that
people don’t want to acknowledge it might be happening now, and they might actually
be on the way out. So, I think there is an aspect where we, maybe, sort of…
We’re so afraid of death; we should be fighting franticly. And there’s the
other side of it where we just see this patient lying there as someone we want
to get out of there, you know. So, em, I certainly had; my father’s cousin,
he’s got Alzheimer’s very, very badly and… I meant to go and see her for years
and years and years and, about two weeks ago, I went to see her and she was in
a, you know, very comatose state, in the bed, all scrunched up and she was my
father’s cousin. And I was so glad to see her and she had Alzheimer’s, but she
recognised, well, not my name or her husband’s name, but she did know her
sister’s name and her cousin’s name, and we did have this conversation.
Thankyou for everything you've done in the past. And I think, maybe people…
Doctors have just got to remember that these people are grandparents, aunts,
uncles, and it’s this huge human thing about seeing people and not just either
cutting it short or dragging it out as you say, but it’s a human institution,
it’s – not institution - it’s a really
important..
Nicky Campbell –
And
that, in the vast majority of cases, is what happens isn’t it?
Dr. Philip Howard –
Yes,
it is. And I think it’s a pity. We've had palliative care in this country
for 35 to 40 years. We pioneered good care for the dying in this country
through the Hospice movement. That was a quiet revolution in medicine and we’re
very proud of it and it’s still applied widely. I think the tragedy is that
we’ve got a problem. We never had this sort of controversy that we’re seeing
with the Liverpool Care Pathway over the
Hospice movement. Walk down any High Street and you will see charity shops for
Hospices. There’s a tremendous amount of support and rightly, in this country,
for the Hospice movement, for hospices, for good care. And I entirely agree
with Baroness Finlay that we must have a proper review of this. Em, it is quite
clear that there is a genuine concern about the way palliative care is
happening in this country. And it is going to have to be a proper and
thorough-going investigation as to what’s going on. And the sense that I get
from relatives – and Jackie has just illustrated this very nicely – is that
relatives and the public at large want good palliative care. Everybody is
pushing from the same side. They want doctors and nurses and the system to work
well for those that are dying. And that must happen.
Applause.
Nicky Campbell (addresses Baroness Finlay) -
Can
I just.. You've only got a few seconds. This has been in place for quite some
time, hasn't it?
Baroness Finlay -
Right.
If I may pick up on the comment that was made. Doctors and nurses, by and
large, desperately want to do what’s right by their patient. They don’t get it
right all the time. We've been trying to drive up standards of care. We just
have to be careful we don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.
Programme Credits....
Dr. Philip Howard –
One of the problems about the Liverpool Care Pathway is that a decision is made and then, very often, observations are stopped, nursing observations are stopped, simple blood tests are stopped and further interventions are usually stopped – with the exception of oxygen, interestingly enough; that’s continued in 45% of cases. But most other interventions are stopped and very rarely started. When… How can the patient be properly reviewed if you don’t have basic nurse observations, basic blood tests and so on? After three days, em… three quarters of the patients have died, but of those that are still alive, according to the audit that was done of 7,000 patients two years ago, only 20% were reassessed.
Dr. Richard Hain –
… em, it’s not so much a question of consent to go on the Pathway, it’s the fact that the conversation needs to take place. It was designed to facilitate that kind of communication, not to replace it.
Where the patient lacks capacity, the Mental Capacity Act enables the medical team to act in the patient's "best interests". Consent is not required. In such cases, the Data Protection Act, also, might exclude relatives/next of kin being party to such a decision being taken. Recent observations by political personalities that this should be otherwise are at variance with this legislation.
This is a legal quagmire.
It is my experience in 5 years of caring for patients as a doctor on NHS acute medical wards that the vast majority of those deemed suitable for the LCP are unable to give consent. The reason for this is simple - they are, by definition, dying and too ill to do so.
ReplyDeleteI believe it is vital that doctors retain the ability to palliate people in their best interests when they cannot give consent. You would not argue that we should not treat seriously ill people who cannot give consent in any other circumstance. Remove the ability of doctors to administer pain relief and prioritise symptom relief in dying people (and this is all that the LCP is designed to do, despite the hysteria in the press), and the result will only be more people dying in pain.
I feel so passionately about this that I have started a site of my own to try and clarify what the LCP is.
I have also discussed the BBC's Big Questions - see http://lcpfacts.co.uk/lcp-discussed-on-bbc-the-big-questions/.
What is your GMC Registration Number? And what is your specialty?
DeleteYour "experience on acute medical wards" (not specified) may differ significantly from the experience of practitioners using it in other healthcare settings. The period of 'the past 5 years' covers both v.12 and its forerunner (the now withdrawn v.8): the topic of discussion in both cases here was v.8.
I note that you are using the Marie Curie LCP logo on your website: can you confirm you have been authorised to use this by MCPCIL, and that the rather confused 'explanation' of the LCP that is already posted there for all to see on the www. has been checked and passed as compliant by them ?
Thank you.
This 'doctor' has a site that reinforces the very strong argument that there is no evidence base for this care pathway, or the drugs the LCP recommends (the assertion it is not a 'treatment' is incorrect-this practitioner is demonstrably wrong on that):
DeleteUnder the 'Evidence' tab, he/she provides a link to the evidence base for using the LCP. It provides a link to the Cochrane Library at
The conclusion drawn by the authors of this paper was as follows:
"Authors' conclusions
Without further available evidence, recommendations for the use of end-of-life pathways in caring for the dying cannot be made. RCTs or other well designed controlled studies are needed for evaluating the use of end-of-life care pathways in caring for dying people."
There is no evidence base at all!
FYI: lcpfacts.co.uk is written and edited by Dr Stewart Gibson BSc MBChB, a medical doctor training in Acute Medicine in Leeds in the UK.
DeleteHe says he created this website to:
DeleteClarify the purpose of the LCP, by explaining what it does and does not involve, and providing an example of the pathway document.
Review the evidence that supports the use of the LCP (and similar care pathways) in caring for dying patients.
Encourage rational debate about how to achieve best care at the end of life.
Can I suggest that anyone who wants example documents downloads them directly from MCPCIL, and bases 'rational debate' on their own direct experience..as even Dr. BeeWee's own Cochrane Review concedes there is no 'evidence base' apart from the lowest SIGN level (level 5 and 'expert opinion')...
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteSince he is flying the LCP logo on his website here , and Marie Curie Liverpool state they have signed off all documents bearing this logo (here http://www.liv.ac.uk/mcpcil/liverpool-care-pathway/register/)
DeleteThe most ridiculous aspect of this 'pathway' are that according to this site:
"Once registered with us you will receive a copy of the LCP that you can make your own by adding additional information. "
...so basically, it would be impossible to find an 'evidence base' for the LCP, as individual practitioners can add whatever they like to it.
Pancuronium, or a swift injection of KI anyone??????
Bee Wee's publication, "How useful are systematic reviews for informing palliative care practice? Survey of 25 Cochrane systematic reviews" ....concludes there is no evidence base at all!
Delete"Conclusion
Cochrane reviews in palliative care are well performed, but fail to provide good evidence for clinical practice because the primary studies are few in number, small, clinically heterogeneous, and of poor quality and external validity. They are useful in highlighting the weakness of the evidence base and problems in performing trials in palliative care. "
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-684X/7/13
Hello LCP facts, it's good to see a doctor post here, thank you so much for doing so, I hope you will continue to post. Thank you for your website too, I just had a quick look and I shall certainly look at it in more detail as it looks very interesting.
ReplyDeleteDr Philip Howard has recently stated:
“It is a decision with an end in view. The patient is dying. Why? Because we say they are dying. Why? Because we have decided.”
Your response was:
"In my opinion there are problems with this view. In predicting death, as in all areas of medicine, there is never 100% certainty. However we accept that it is often necessary to act in a patient’s best interests on the balance of probabilities. Even if it is not possible to predict the timescale of death with absolute certainty, if imminent death seems likely we have to review whether our interventions are helping the patient and how we can ease their suffering; this is all that the LCP requires us to do."
Isn't the key issue though, as Professor Patrick Pullicino has stated, that there is no scientific basis for applying the LCP...that the LCP is based on the abandonment of science?
I've now found Professor Pullicino's speech to the Medical Ethics Alliance:
ReplyDelete"The dangers of abandonment of evidence based medicine in the use of the Liverpool Care pathway"
A presentation by Professor Pullicino, professor of clinical neuroscience, university of Kent, to the Royal
Society of Medicine.
“Evidence-based medicine is increasingly regarded as the gold standard of clinical care. The Liverpool Care Pathway (LCP) is a pre-specified “care plan” used for patients who are judged to be “in the last hours or days of life. 29% of patients in National Health Service (NHS) hospitals currently die on the LCP.
The median time to death on the LCP is 33 hrs. A review of the literature reveals that there are no published Criteria that can predict death within this time frame.
The lack of an evidence-base for institution of the LCP makes it a form of assisted death rather than a care plan.
The personal judgement of the physician and other medical team members about perceived quality of life or low likelihood of a good outcome are probably central in the decision to put a patient on the LCP.
There are likely many patients who have been killed by the LCP who could have lived substantially longer.
The LCP is also likely to negatively affecting doctor-patients relationships and have a negative impact on medical care, particularly of the elderly, in NHS hospitals.
Prognosis is a statistical range of survival times based on assessing the patient’s survival by use of a previously published prognostic scale.
Prognostication has limited accuracy. Survival is frequently over- or under-estimated and only about 25% of survival estimates are correct to within one week.[3]
The majority of prognostication research has been done in cancer patients, with advanced disease with a high likelihood of being fatal within a relatively short time.
Non-cancer diagnoses have a less predictable course making prognostication more difficult. Neurological
disease has to include a separate prognostication for meaningful cognitive recovery if the patient survives, which complicates prognostication.
Every patient is unique with personal characteristics that affect their outcome [5]
The Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP) is the most frequently used survival score for “terminally ill” cancer patients.
However, at least 50% of the score is subjective and based on a clinical prediction of survival and depends on the experience of the rating clinician.
The PaP has been validated to divide patients into 3 distinct risk groups. The median survival for the groups are: 76 days, 32 days, and 14 days. The
matching 30 day survival probabilities are 87%, 52%, and 17%.[6]
A short term prognostication index that includes a nomogram for probability of survival at 15 days was inaccurate in up to 32% of cancer patients.[7]"
I find the above worrying. May I ask you for your response to Professor Pullicino's points here?
My apologies, I should have stated that I am addressing my second comment above to LCP facts too.
ReplyDeleteProfessor Pullicino's speech continues:
ReplyDelete"In this study, in a quartile (99 patients) of mean survival 10 days, over 10% survived much longer, with survival up to 200 days.
Literature Search
A MEDLINE search was conducted with search words “terminally ill” and “prognosis”. 405 citations were returned and these were reviewed for relevance to prognostication in a very early time frame.
The shortest prognostication time found for a heterogeneous cancer/non-cancer population was for survival less than 1 week using the Palliative Performance Scale.[8]
The “Last Hours or Days of Life”
The LCP states that the patient has to be in “last hours or days of life”[1]. The median time to death on LCP was 33 (12-79) hours and was identical in the first two audits of the LCP.[9] I was not able to find any research published that addresses prognostication within this very short survival time scale.[5]
The LCP does not in fact attempt to use any published prognostication index to determine eligibility for the pathway.
For this reason, being “within the last
hours of days of life” is
a prediction not a prognostication."
Earlier in the speech, Professor Pullicino made the following points about prediction:
"Prediction is different from prognostication.[2] Prediction is a point estimate of survival time by a clinician.
A prediction is at best an educated guess and often incorrect.
The agreement between actual survival and predicted survival is poor (weighted kappa 0.36) even in terminal cancer patients.[3] Statistical models are no better at giving point estimates of survival time than clinicians.
Using a statistical prognostic index, in 272 patients with lung cancer, 49% of clinicians’ predictions and 52% of statistical predictions were in “serious error”
(life span overestimated by 100% or underestimated by 50%).[4]"
LCP Facts, how can doctors put patients on the LCP when, as Porfessor Pullicino establishes, there is no scientific basis for such decisions?
ReplyDeleteThe fact is that the protocols of the LCP are being abused wholesale. It was originally used within the Marie Curie hospice as a means to deliver as pain free as death as possible in the last few ""HOURS"" of life. Some insane individual has grabbed the Liverpool Care Pathway and determined its use for any condition, right across the NHS and as a result the NHS, seems to have developed, what could be described as an almost fanatical defense. The NHS needs much more public accountability.
ReplyDeleteThere is no power in society to stop them, because in a doctors eyes, they have the right to declare that the patient is dying. The burden of proof falls then upon the individual, to prove that there was a misdiagnosis.
The Liverpool Care Pathway, should not ever be used except, potentially, under the strictest of medical guidelines and protocols for diagnosis. Even then it is wide open to systemic abuse. The reason for this is that it is purely based on hypothesis, supposition and guess work at best. The Liverpool Care Pathway has no scientific or medical basis. In fact it is nothing more than a lottery and that is what the lives of our elderly and our loved one's have come down to.
The Liverpool Care Pathway, is not safe to be used it is as simple as that.
The public must be made aware of the dangers of the Liverpool Care Pathway, only then will they be able to make an informed choice and keep a close watch on the public. I have no doubt at all, that there will be many more victims who will be mistakenly placed on this.
ReplyDeleteTo all intents and purposes, it is murder!
Baroness Finlay says:
ReplyDelete"I certainly think that the evidence that’s been coming forward – let’s look at evidence – is that there seems to have been a problem in some cases and there is now an inquiry set up under Baroness Neuberger. I think that she needs to be able to access all the evidence, she needs to be able to look at all the cases and she needs to be able to conduct her inquiry independently, impartially, and look at where the problems lie, where there are problems and, much more importantly, two, is what the solutions to those problems are. "
Since it is obvious that the cohort operating from the Facebook page have already submitted bogus 'evidence', and so many of the affected families have withdrawn from the Kangaroo Court - the LCP is really nothing more than a dead horse - its only people on 'a good earner' from it who are 'flogging it' (literally, they own and sell it abroad!).
Here's my comment on Dr. Stewart Gibson's LCP Facts Blog:
ReplyDeleteJackie Leotardi 13 February, 2013 at 8:20 pm
I do not wish to dwell on the details of my father’s case, but in view of the reference in your blog to the newspaper article, I think it is important to stress that it was an inaccuracy on the newspaper’s part to report that my father appeared to be in pain. The “initial assessment” on his LCP documentation reports (correctly) that he was NOT in pain, NOT agitated and CONSCIOUS. It also records that he had no nausea / vomiting. (Incidentally, he had an existing PEG tube, fitted a year earlier when his swallow was weak during infection which he subsequently hadn’t needed, but which he had kept left in as a standby, fully functional and flushed out for emergencies such as this, so risk of aspiration was reduced to a minimum.)
The debate on Sunday was specifically covering the use of the LCP in an NHS hospital setting. My opinion is that in an NHS acute hospital setting, the requirement to consider whether there is a “potentially reversible cause for the patient’s condition” is frequently ignored. This is one of the many examples of abuse of LCP protocol.
Supporters of the LCP on websites usually try to restrict the argument over its use in NHS hospitals to a narrowly confined field of when the LCP protocol has been “correctly” applied – they blithely dismiss the horror stories of relatives’ families as isolated incidents of “bad practice”. LCP supporters invariably start their posts by saying: “If the LCP is used correctly….” or “When staff are trained to use the LCP properly, then…..” If is almost as if they want to say that the failings reported “don’t count” because they are merely examples of when the LCP wasn’t used properly.
They pay scant regard to the question of how abuse of the LCP can be prevented in NHS hospitals, despite the news that following the Mid-Staffs inquiry a further 14 hospitals are being investigated because of worryingly high mortality rates. They side-step the issue of overwhelming evidence of widespread LCP abuse and instead conjure up an NHS utopian fantasy land, where the LCP is scrupulously applied and all patients on it are painstakingly reviewed every 4 hours.
Stewart, what do you suggest should be done to ensure that abuse of the LCP never takes place in an NHS hospital? What deterrents should be put in place?
Personally, I believe it is impossible to eliminate abuse of the LCP. It is flawed because it puts far too much power in the hands of one doctor and one nurse.
I so agree with you here...but since hardly ANY of the deterrents recommended by a judge were put in place after the Howard Shipman trial, I don't see any would work, apart from 100% honesty about the real function of 'palliative care' and of a hospice...any medical practitioner who couldn't treat nausea, vomiting, pain, agitation or 'respiratory secretions' before it was rolled out across the NHS was clearly too busy to read the British National Formulary.
ReplyDelete